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08/23/2007 - Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johnny Benson used an alternative pit strategy to perfection and captured Wednesday night's O'Reilly 200 at the Bristol Motor Speedway. The No.23 Exide Batteries Toyota crossed the finish line seven lengths ahead of Brendan Gaughan.
The victory was Benson's second of the season and seventh of his Craftsman Truck Series career.
Travis Kvapil brought the field to the green flag for 200 laps of pure short track racing. And it wasn't even one lap before the first caution flag flew as Timothy Peters slammed the outside wall.
Kvapil lasted 16 laps before realizing the Gaughan was faster and he let him slide past for the lead. Gaughan, who got married last week, quickly pulled out to a four-length lead. But more caution flags slowed the action to a crawl.
The leaders took the opportunity to pit, possibly for the only time all evening. Mark Martin took fuel only and came out fourth, while Gaughan took two right-side tires and was fifth on the restart.
Johnny Benson didn't stop and inherited the lead as they went back to green on lap 49. Gaughan was still on the move, passing Martin for third and taking off after the leaders. The No.77 Chevrolet got around Jason White for second and had just one truck between himself and the leader, who still had to make a pit stop.
Kvapil was also following Gaughan up the charts and was third at lap 75. In fact, Kvapil was taking a peek to the bottom of the track on Gaughan, but he closed the door. Then Kvapil faked low, went high and took second from Gaughan.
Kvapil got up to Benson's door on lap 97, but a slower car prevented the No.6 Ford from completing the pass.
Tim Sauter broke his rear suspension on lap 103 and Benson took the opportunity to make his pit stop for fuel and four tires. He would restart 17th. That gave the lead to Kvapil with a fast Kyle Busch, Gaughan, points leader Mike Skinner and Martin just behind him.
Laps clicked off slowly as three more caution flag periods kept everyone on hold.
The green flag dropped on lap 129 and off they went. Kvapil was still trying to hold off Busch. Benson restarted in eighth apparently wanting to get back in the battle too.
Sixty laps to go and Kvapil held 0.494 seconds on Busch. Benson was up to sixth, three seconds back. Before the field hit the 150-lap mark, Benson was fourth and challenging Gaughan.
Forty laps remained and Busch was right on Kvapil's rear bumper. Then a debris caution slowed the field. Seeing the flag, Benson was likely smiling as it brought him within striking distance of the leaders.
The race restarted with 34 laps to go. Kvapil got off quickly and built his lead to three lengths. Meanwhile, Benson took third from Gaughan. Derrike Cope slammed the inside wall and the eighth caution flag would last a little while with body pieces and fluid all over the track.
The race finally restarted with just 22 laps remaining. This time Busch was all over Kvapil at the start. They were locked side-by-side in turn four when they both spun. They kept off the walls, but Benson cruised underneath the two spinning trucks and the lead was his once again.
The race restarted with 16 laps to go. Benson, who had gotten four tires at lap 103 was better than Gaughan, who had taken just two right-sides much earlier in the race. But another caution (Todd Bodine spin) gave Gaughan one last chance to figure a way past Benson. Gaughan couldn't find one and Benson took the checkered flag and the victory, his second of the season.
Martin, Skinner and Rick Crawford completed the top-five. For the first time in 20 races, Skinner failed to lead a lap.
The next race on the truck series schedule is set for Saturday, September 1st at the Gateway International Raceway.
<< Davydenko advances in New Haven
New Haven, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion, top-seeded Russian
Nikolay Davydenko and fourth-seeded Spaniard David Ferrer were second-round
winners Wednesday at the $650,000 Pilot Pen Tennis event, a final U.S. Open
tune-up
<< Rangers set modern-day run record in 30-3 rout of O's
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marlon Byrd and Travis Metcalf each
belted grand slams, helping the Texas Rangers set a modern-record for most
runs in a game by decimating the Baltimore Orioles 30-3, in the front end of a
twi-nig
<< Tu reaches Forest Hills QFs
Forest Hills, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second-seeded American Meilen Tu was
among Wednesday's opening-round winners at the $74,800 Forest Hills Sony
Ericsson WTA Tour Classic. Rain wiped out opening day here on Tuesday and
caused
<< Tigers' Sheffield sidelined with shoulder injury
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Detroit Tigers slugger Gary Sheffield will
likely be sidelined a week to rest his aching right shoulder.
According to the Tigers' web site, the shoulder has bothered Sheffield for
about the last two
Peavy pitches Padres past Mets >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Khalil Greene had three hits and drove in
three runs and Jake Peavy struck out 11 over six innings to lead the San Diego
Padres over the New York Mets, 7-5, at Shea Stadium.
Peavy (14-5) won his fifth
Dodgers feast on Phils' pitching in 15-3 rout >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andre Ethier belted a two-run home run in
the fourth inning, and the Los Angeles Dodgers pounded the Philadelphia
Phillies, 15-3, in the second of three straight games at Citizens Bank Park.
Matt K
Upton lifts D-Rays past BoSox >>
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - B.J. Upton's two-run homer in the sixth
was all the offense the Devil Rays needed as Tampa Bay downed Boston, 2-1, to
avoid a three-game sweep at Tropicana Field.
Edwin Jackson (4-12) gave up just o
United top Red Bulls on Moreno's historic night >>
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Red Bulls are the second
straight Major League Soccer team to suffer from the David Beckham hangover.
On Aug. 12, the New England Revolution hosted Beckham and the Los Angeles
Galaxy
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:
Saints +6 @ Colts -6
Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)
Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)
Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5
Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1
Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3
Patriots -5 @ Jets +5
Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5
Steelers -4 @ Browns +4
Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6
Bears +6 @ Chargers -6
Lions +3 @ Raiders -3
Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5
Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4
Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3
Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3
Super Bowl line (2008)
NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5
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Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting